Predicted Next 8-Year Annualized Return of USA at TMC/GDP=20Y average*1.3 : 2.7% (As of 2024-11-29)
Historical Data
Basic Info
Predicted Next 8-Year Annualized Return of USA at TMC/GDP=20Y average*1.3 was 2.7 as of 2024-11-29, according to GuruFocus: Buffett Indicator. Historically, Predicted Next 8-Year Annualized Return of USA at TMC/GDP=20Y average*1.3 reached a record high of 24.6 and a record low of -0.7, the median value is 8.2. Typical value range is from 2.8 to 6.2. The Year-Over-Year growth is -49.12%. GuruFocus provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Predicted Next 8-Year Annualized Return of USA at TMC/GDP=20Y average*1.3 - last updated on 2024-11-29.
The index using the total market capitalization to GDP ratio, often referred to as the "Buffett Indicator," forecasts future annual market returns by assuming valuations revert to their historical mean. Here, combining the other two factors that determine stock market returns, we derive a formula for estimating future returns: Investment Return (%) = Dividend Yield (%) + Business Growth (%) + Change in Valuation (%). The 'Change in Valuation' is calculated using the Buffett Ratio. For our calculations, we used an 8-year period, which approximates the length of a full economic cycle. The chart and data can be interpreted following the below example: as of 07/11/2024, the recent 20-year average ratio is 118.3%, and the stock market is likely to return -0.2% a year in the next 8 years based on TMC/GDP. The factor of 1.3 is a arbitrary number if the market trends toward being overvalued.
For more details, check our blog about the Buffett Indicator.
| Category | Market Trend |
| Region | USA |
| Source | GuruFocus: Buffett Indicator |
Stats
| Name | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Last Value | 2.7% | ||
| Latest Period | 2024-11-29 | ||
| Long Term Average | 4.47% | ||
| Average Annualized Growth Rate | -2.06% | ||
| Value from 1 year ago | 3.9% | ||
| Change from 1 year ago | -30.77% | ||
| Frequency | Quarterly | ||
| Unit | % |
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