China just dropped a bombshell: it's cutting off exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the U.S., and the markets are already on edge. These minerals are a big deal—they're critical for semiconductors, solar panels, and military tech. This move, aimed squarely at tightening supply chains amid rising U.S.-China tensions, has lit a fire under MP Materials Corp. (MP, Financial). The stock jumped over 12% early morning, hitting a fresh 52-week high at $23 per share. It's not just hype; this is the type of seismic shift that could reshape global resource markets.
MP Materials is perfectly positioned to ride this wave. Already clocking a 36% twelve-month stock price gain and smashing production records in Q3, the company is flexing its muscles. Analysts are loving it, too—price targets have been bumped up to as high as $26, with firms like Canaccord Genuity doubling down on “Buy” ratings. MP is ramping up its Fort Worth facility to start producing magnets next year, with refining margins expected to turn positive by 2025. Add in a rock-solid liquidity position and increasing government focus on reducing reliance on China, and MP Materials is looking less like a stock and more like a lifeline for Western industries scrambling to secure critical minerals.
But here's the kicker: China's dominance in these minerals isn't going away quietly. China produces approximately 98% of the world's gallium and accounts for 68% of global refined germanium output, and prices are already spiking. Antimony trioxide, a key component for batteries and infrared tech, has seen its price skyrocket by nearly 230% this year. Experts warn this trade war could get uglier before it gets better, but for MP Materials, the chaos is a goldmine. With a U.S.-centric supply chain and big plans for the future, the company isn't just weathering the storm—it's thriving in it. Keep your eyes on this one.
