Apple's iOS Expected to Outpace Android Growth in 2025, IDC Says

Apple (AAPL, Financials) and its competitors are projected to ship approximately 1.24 billion smartphones globally in 2024, marking a 6.2% year-over-year increase, research firm International Data Corporation said.

After two years of declines, pent-up demand for gadget improvements spurred the turnabout.

With 2.6% CAGR from 2023 to 2028, growth is expected to slow down to low single digits from 2025 ahead. The company ascribed the drop to longer replacement cycles, saturation of the smartphone market, and competition from a growing secondhand smartphone industry.

Though behind Android's 7.6%, Apple's iOS is predicted to rise 0.4% in 2024. But iOS is expected to rise 3.1% year over year in 2025, surpassing Android's 1.7% increase.

With an average selling price of more than $1,000, Apple tops the sector in profitability according to IDC; Android competitors average $295.

"While GenAI continues to be a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is yet to impact demand significantly and drive early upgrades," said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Track.

"While we continue to believe GenAI will revolutionize the user experience in the years to come, more investments are needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a ‘must have’ feature that will rush consumers to the store and create that super cycle which everyone is waiting for. For now, we expect GenAI smartphones will take their place in premium flagship devices and keep moving down in price tiers to rapidly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”

Popal said generative AI-enabled smartphones would surpass premium devices and account for 70% of the market by 2028.

Apple's historic success is due to emerging countries like India, but it confronts problems in China, the US, and Europe.

Chinese manufacturers are transitioning from foldable handsets to generative AI smartphones, according to IDC's research director Anthony Scarsella. Foldables fell 7.4% in Q3 despite important vendor introductions. Scarsella said the category is predicted to expand 10.5% in 2024 and double-digit growth through 2028, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 15.9%. Durability and restricted use cases impede foldable adoption, he said.

Despite challenges, Apple's 2025 iOS growth trajectory suggests smartphone market gains.