Research company IDC projects that global smartphone shipments in 2024 would be 1.24 billion, up 6.2% from the year before. Although the comeback shows pent-up demand for upgrades, from 2025 onward the growth rate is predicted to slow down; with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6%, 2023 to 2028.
With a 7.6% year-over-year gain, Android smartphones are likely to fuel most of 2024's growth; Apple's iOS is expected to rise just 0.4% over the same period, IDC said. But iOS is expected to quicken to 3.1% increase in 2025, surpassing the 1.7% rise of Android.
IDC notes longer device refresh cycles, rising market penetration, and competition from the expanding secondhand smartphone market as causes of the slower long-term growth. "While Gen AI will change the user experience, more consumer awareness and breakthrough features are needed to create the super cycle that the industry anticipates," stated Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.
With an average selling price higher than $1,000, Apple (AAPL, Financial) continues to be a profit leader despite difficulties in big countries such China, the U.S., and Europe compared to Android's average of $295. The company's premium pricing approach places it rather strongly even when the state of the industry changes.
