Qualcomm's (QCOM, Financial) stock tumbled 7% today after the company's Investor Day presentation, where it laid out bold plans to diversify beyond smartphones. CEO Cristiano Amon painted a picture of Qualcomm tackling a $900 billion market by 2030, driven by growth in automotive, IoT, and other connected tech segments. The company is betting big: it expects $8 billion in automotive revenue and $14 billion from IoT by 2029. But investors didn't seem convinced, with many questioning whether Qualcomm can hit these targets while navigating slowing smartphone sales and its heavy reliance on China, which accounts for nearly half of its revenue.
Analysts are cautious. Deutsche Bank acknowledged the company's diversification strategy but flagged potential trouble from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) reducing its use of Qualcomm chips. Barclays wasn't sold on IoT growth projections, describing them as ambitious given recent performance. Qualcomm's plans for PCs and XR headsets—segments it expects to pull in $4 billion and $2 billion, respectively, by 2029—are drawing skepticism too. Investors seem focused on whether these new markets can ramp up quickly enough to offset headwinds in the core handset business, where competition is fierce, and geopolitical risks loom large.
Still, Amon is confident, highlighting Qualcomm's leadership in generative AI, edge computing, and next-gen automotive tech. Some analysts are optimistic, noting that Qualcomm's earnings power remains strong even without Apple. Bernstein analysts pointed out that Qualcomm has proven itself resilient in tough markets before and could deliver if its diversification plans pay off. For now, though, the message from Wall Street is clear: big visions are great, but Qualcomm will need to show concrete progress before investors are ready to climb back on board.
